What’s the Chance?

with TV maths wizard Carol Vorderman

IN a civil court, the prosecution only has to prove their case on the balance of probability, ie, that the charge is more likely to be true than not. In a criminal court, however, the burden of proof is much higher, and the prosecution must prove that their version of events is true beyond reasonable doubt. But what is reasonable doubt? And can it be quantified? Doubt can never be eradicated and no matter how certain you may be of something, there is always the possibility that it is not so. But what is a reasonable probability that something is true? 80%? 90%? 99%? We put four true-life scenarios to saucy maths wizard Carol Vorderman, and asked her to look at them with a statistician’s eye, crunching the numbers to…

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Viz (Digital) - 1 Issue, October 2023

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