A nuclear weapon is a certain thing—atomic or hydrogen, fission or fusion, bomb or missile, so many megatons— but nothing could be more uncertain than the consequences of using one. Nine nations have nuclear weapons; only the United States has ever used one, and that was in 1945. Our nuclear-weapons policy rests on a seven-decade-long history of events that have never happened: acts of aggression that were not committed, wars that were not waged, an apocalypse that has not come to pass. Strategists attribute the non- occurrence— the deterrence—of these events to the weapons themselves, to bombs on airplanes, missiles in silos, launchers on submarines. The power of deterrence, however, is a claim that cannot be proved. If, while a police car is parked in front of your house, your…
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The New Yorker (Digital) - 1 Issue, January 30, 2017