60 Articles

It feels like the early 2000s all over again. Following a nasty few months in stockmarkets, equities bounce, and optimism that we have turned the corner and entered a new bull market spreads. The Hulbert Nasdaq Newsletter Sentiment Index, compiled by US analyst Mark Hulbert, shows that bullishness among a subset of short-term traders who concentrate on the technology-focused Nasdaq market has reached an historical extreme. They are more bullishly bullish than ever. Between 2000 and 2003, after more than a decade of rising markets, spoiled traders instinctively bought the dips and thought every bear-market rally was the start of a new bull market. This time round, the post-2009 bull run, which peaked early this year, has lulled everyone into complacency. But the odds are that the latest bounce (see…

2 min.

Tax grab of the week

Japan wants young people to drink more for tax reasons, says the BBC. Younger Japanese people drink less alcohol than their parents and this is hitting sales of beverages from beer to sake: between 1995 and 2020, average annual consumption of alcoholic drinks dropped from 100 litres to 75 litres per adult. That meant taxes on alcohol sales raised ¥1.1trn in 2020 or less than 1.7% of total tax revenue, says Bloomberg, while 40 years ago, they contributed 5% of revenue. So the National Tax Agency has launched a campaign called Sake Viva!, inviting people in their 20s and 30s to come up with ideas that will increase demand among young people for alcohol – whether those are promotions, new products or even (somehow) proposals involving artificial intelligence. It’s a…

2 min.

Bull market or bear-market rally?

“The extreme pessimism of the first half of 2022 seems a distant memory” on Wall Street, says Nicholas Jasinski in Barron’s. “War in Europe, runaway inflation” and “a behind-the-curve Federal Reserve” saw US stocks suffer their worst first half in more than 50 years. Yet the S&P 500 index gained 17% between its June lows and 16 August, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose more than 20%, a milestone widely considered to herald a new bull market. The FTSE 100 rose 7% over the same period. Why confidence has grown This summer’s rally has proceeded in two stages, says Thomas Mathews of Capital Economics. “Until early August” it was driven by “unwinding of expectations for Fed rate hikes” amid bets that a slowing economy would soon show inflation the door. Since…

1 min.

Nickel price subsides after wild ride

Nickel prices spiked last week after Indonesian president Joko Widodo said the country may start taxing nickel exports before the end of the year. Indonesia accounts for 25% of global reserves. The metal is used to make stainless steel and electric-vehicle (EV) batteries. The proposed tax is part of a plan to move Indonesia “up the EV supply chain” by encouraging companies to build more battery-manufacturing capacity in the country, says Eko Listiyorini on Bloomberg. Nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) jumped 4% in response to the news but then fell back, says Étienne Goetz in Les Echos. Investors have been expecting this move from Indonesia, while a Chinese slowdown is also sapping global metal demand. Often overlooked, nickel is a vital ingredient for electric cars. An average…

1 min.

Turkey returns to bad habits

Turkey’s central bank has made “another idiotic move”, says Timothy Ash of BlueBay Asset Management. With annual inflation at 79.6%, it has cut interest rates by a percentage point to 13%. The bank sparked a currency crisis late last year when it slashed rates by five percentage points, say Ali Kucukgocmen and Nevzat Devranoglu on Reuters. The latest cut is a return to bad habits. The lira lost 44% against the dollar in 2021 and is down a further 27% this year, sending the cost of imports – and hence inflation – soaring. With interest rates now at 13%, Turkey’s real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate is a staggering minus 67%, among the lowest in the world. The lira “was worth six times more against the dollar in August 2017 than at…

2 min.

Europe: ignored and cheap

Recession is “just round the corner” in the eurozone, says Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics. Weakening business surveys, higher gas prices and tighter monetary policy herald a tough second half. The Euro Stoxx 50 index of euro-area blue chips has fallen 13% this year. European shares are out of favour with global money managers, says Michael Msika on Bloomberg. Allocations to euro-area equities have hit their lowest level since June 2012. Analysts at UBS think that European stocks are heading for their worst year since 2008. Bavarian bargains Still, a rally this summer has left some wondering whether the worst of the sell-off is over. The Euro Stoxx 50 has gained 11% since a low in early July. France’s CAC 40 has outperformed, says Bastien Bouchaud in Les Echos. With…

1 min.

Viewpoint

“[The latest] official GDP release from the Kremlin... stated that the Russian economy shrank a less-than-anticipated 4% from April through June compared with a year earlier... While Western journalists question Putin’s propaganda... they uncritically swallow his false, unsupported GDP pronouncement... the Kremlin’s economic releases have become increasingly cherry-picked... divulging select data which portray the Kremlin in the most favourable light... now-vanished metrics include foreign trade data... oil and gas monthly output data; commodity export quantities; capital inflows and outflows [and] foreign direct investment data... Putin has... shunted aside heads of [statistics agency] Rosstat who produced statistics [he disliked]... no matter how much the Kremlin tries to distort the numbers, the Russian economy is reeling.”…

1 min.

Market mayhem slashes Oslo’s savings

Plunging markets wiped $174bn off the value of Norway’s $1.2trn sovereign wealth fund during the first half of 2022. The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund invests the money gained from oil and gas sales. Two-thirds of the fund is invested in equities, just under a third in fixed income and the rest in unlisted assets, such as property. The fund’s 14.4% drop was its worst half-year performance since 2008, says Nessim Aït-Kacimi in Les Echos, but it is still 1.14% better than its performance benchmark (based on a mixture of stock and bond indices). While the loss is a setback, soaring oil prices have also let Oslo set aside $36bn this year for the fund to buy up more assets as markets fall. The fund’s value has soared 14-fold in…

2 min.

Curtain falls at Cineworld

The show is over. Last week Cineworld’s shares plunged by 80% on rumours that it was about to declare bankruptcy. This week it confirmed that it is considering a voluntary Chapter 11 filing in the US as it attempts to reduce its $5bn debt mountain, say Luca Casiraghi and Thomas Seal on Bloomberg. In theory, the move will allow the world’s second-largest cinema chain to keep operating while it works out a plan to repay creditors. However, in practice shareholders are almost certain to be either completely wiped out, or at least heavily diluted, in any agreement. Cineworld’s decision to file for bankruptcy comes as the industry has been “battered” by the pandemic, which closed cinemas for long periods in 2020 and the first half of 2021, say Madeleine Speed…

1 min.

Bed, Bath & Beyond help

Shareholders are “pulling the rug out from under” US retailer Bed Bath & Beyond, says Parija Kavilanz on CNN. The shares dropped by another 16% on Monday after reports that some suppliers have stopped shipping products owing to late payments. The latest hit comes on the back of an even bigger fall in the share price after it emerged that activist investor Ryan Cohen has dumped almost his entire stake. Earlier this month news of another large purchase by Cohen “had lifted its share price in a meme-fuelled buying frenzy” that saw the stock quadruple in value. The fall in its share price has serious consequences as it makes it much harder for the company to raise much-needed cash by issuing more shares, say Jodi Xu Klein and Suzanne Kapner…

1 min.

Vodafone hangs up on Hungary

Vodafone has sold its Hungarian mobile operation Vodafone Hungary for £1.5bn to the government as Viktor Orbán and his allies “tighten their grip on the country’s economy”, says Matthew Field in The Telegraph. The subsidiary will be bought by 4iG, a local IT and telecoms group, and a state-backed holding company with the aim of creating a “national champion”. The deal comes after 4iG snapped up assets from smaller rivals in broadband and television broadcasting as it competes with rival Magyar Telekom, owned by Germany’s Deutsche Telekom. The deal will help reduce Vodafone’s “massive” debt pile of £41.6bn while enabling it to focus on “other key European operations”, including Germany, Portugal, and the UK, says Harry Wise on This is Money. This is important because Vodafone CEO Nick Read (pictured)…

3 min.

MoneyWeek’s comprehensive guide to this week’s share tips

Three to buy AB Dynamics The Sunday Times This automotive-testing business is responsible for producing “robots that check the safety of almost all of the world’s major auto brands’ vehicles”. The number of tests a new car model faces before certification is rising quickly, from 84 in 2016 to 420 by next year, making this a fast-growing area. Listed on Aim, the firm’s shares have been caught up in the market “car crash” and have fallen by 30% in a year. Yet given the structural growth in AB’s market, the shares look “worthy of the ride”. 1,310p Anglo American The Telegraph Shares in this FTSE 100 mining behemoth are “dirt cheap” on a price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio of five and yielding more than 7%. Pessimism surrounding the commodities outlook and operational…

1 min.

A German view

Stockholm-listed Invisio should be a key beneficiary of the long-term upswing in defence and security spending likely to result from the invasion of Ukraine, says Der Aktionär. The group specialises in sophisticated communication systems for armies and police forces, with products ranging from headsets and cables to control units and intercoms. Clients include the UK, US, Canadian and Australian armies. Between 2017 and 2021 sales rose by an average of 12% a year, and while global supply-chain problems have hampered the company recently, the underlying picture remains auspicious: the order book has never been this full.…

1 min.

IPO watch

There have been few initial public offerings (IPOs) on the world’s stock exchanges in 2022 thanks to the gloomy economic backdrop. But one market has defied the downturn, says Bloomberg. Mainland China has seen listings raise $57.8bn this year, a record for a year to date. Since January, five IPOs have eclipsed the $1bn mark. Domestic Chinese equity markets are less exposed to global sentiment as they are “largely geared towards local investors”. Moreover, monetary policy has remained loose to bolster an economy undermined by lockdowns and turbulence in the property sector – a contrast to the loss of confidence caused by tightening policy elsewhere.…

3 min.

The NHS: a bureaucracy gone wrong

The NHS is to launch a public awareness campaign urging the public to avoid A&E, says Laura Donnelly in The Telegraph. This comes at a time of record backlogs, with 6.7 million on waiting lists, a worrying level of excess deaths, which has averaged 1,000 for 15 weeks of this year, and concerns that hospitals and ambulances are “facing strains usually seen in the depths of winter”. The excess deaths are particularly worrying given that Covid-19 “killed off the most medically vulnerable”, says Michael Simmons in The Spectator. In addition to untreated cancers, one of the leading groups affected is 30-59-year-olds dying from – again probably untreated – heart disease and diabetes. Things are only likely to get worse. Australia, which gets its flu season six months before us, has…

1 min.

Tories back Sunak’s policies yet warm to Truss

Politics & economics On 5 September, Britain will get its fourth prime minister in six years, voted in by around 160,000 Tory party members, says The Economist. Whoever wins, and it looks increasingly likely to be Liz Truss, “will inherit a country that is in a mess”. Inflation is expected to pass 13%, real wages are predicted to fall more swiftly than they have in decades and the average household energy bill may hit £4,200 in January. Although Rishi Sunak, an “urbane technocrat” and “tested politician” has a “sounder grasp of what needs doing”, Truss, with her “warmed-up Reaganite agenda of deficit-funded tax cuts and deregulation”, is savvier politically and “more likely to succeed”. Bizarrely, a YouGov survey of Tory party members showed that they agreed by a majority…

3 min.

The state of play in Ukraine

On 24 February, “the world united in horror as Russian missiles rained down on Ukraine”, announcing the start of an invasion, says Lara Williams on Bloomberg. Six months on, the initial Russian blitzkrieg is over, “giving way to a slower war of attrition in the south of Ukraine”. Hundreds of Ukrainian civilians are still losing their lives every month, and many more are being injured, and there are currently about 6.7 million recorded refugees scattered across Europe. The war has also changed the world order “immeasurably”, with Russia now a “pariah” state and subject to sanctions. Could the underdog win? The very fact that the conflict is still ongoing is itself a victory in that “both Moscow and the West had essentially written Ukraine off at the start of the…

1 min.

Authoritarianism runs amok down under

Revelations that former prime minister Scott Morrison “covertly appointed himself to jointly run five ministries without telling most of the ministers involved” during the pandemic has “sent shockwaves through the Australian political establishment”, says Nic Fildes in the Financial Times. While not technically illegal, the actions “fundamentally undermined” the principles of responsible government, making it impossible to hold ministers to account. Some have compared them to “authoritarian governments around the world that used the pretext of the pandemic to strengthen their grip on power”. Morrison is already facing demands that he resign from parliament, and governor-general David Hurley is under fire for approving Morrison’s actions, says Bernard Lagan in the Times. Hurley’s defenders say he had no option other than to approve the appointments and assumed they would be made…

1 min.

Betting on politics

With the battle for the Conservative leadership set to finish in just over a week, bettors remain convinced that Liz Truss will follow Boris Johnson. With £11.1m matched on Betfair alone, Truss remains favourite at 1.07 (93.5%), with RIshi Sunak at 14 (7.1%). With all the published polls giving her large leads, I have to admit that it’s hard to see Truss losing at this stage, though the result may be closer than the landslide they are predicting. Certainly, the odds on her are too short to actually recommend betting on her. Instead, I’d turn my attention to Australia. In November the state of Victoria goes to the polls. With £45,332 matched on Betfair, Labor is the clear favourite to win the next election (as defined by providing the premier)…

7 min.

News

Coventry Britishvolt’s latest setback: The future of Britishvolt, the car-battery manufacturing start-up that has received £100m of taxpayer support to build Britain’s first large-scale “gigafactory” in Northumberland, is at a “crossroads”, says Robert Lea in The Times: co-founder and CEO Orral Nadjari (pictured) has suddenly resigned. Graham Hoare has taken over temporarily as acting CEO owing to his lack of experience running a listed company. The chairman Peter Rolton similarly has no listed company experience. Britishvolt, which has ambitions to float on the stock exchange, has also signalled to new investors that it will slash its valuation from an initial £2bn to £1.5bn to attract support, after “leaked internal memos” revealed construction of the Blyth factory was “stalling” and company finances were on “life support”. This isn’t Britishvolt’s first “setback”,…

4 min.

Saudi’s vision of the future

What’s happened? Saudi Arabia has announced more details of its plans for Neom, the futuristic megacity that crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) wants to build in the north-west of his country. The name is derived from the Greek word for “new” and the Arabic word for “future”, and the city’s construction, first announced in 2017, is taking place in the sparsely populated Tabuk desert, next to the Red Sea and close to the border with Jordan. The project is a key component of MbS’s “Vision 2030” strategy – pivoting away from reliance on oil towards a diversified economy that attracts more tourists and global businesses, much like Dubai. The estimated cost is $500bn, and MbS hopes the city will have 1.5 million residents by 2030 – eventually nine million…

3 min.

Who would buy Man United?

Elon Musk might be interested. So might Jim Ratcliffe, the founder of INEOS, and one of the UK’s richest men. And it can’t be long before Richard Branson, or some Chinese billionaire no one has ever heard of, or even David Beckham, pops up and offers to put a few spare billions on the table. Plenty of tycoons and sports and media conglomerates are circling Manchester United, arguably the most valuable asset in the world’s most valuable sport. The club’s share price certainly makes more interesting entertainment than anything that is happening on the pitch right now, at least to the team’s long-suffering supporters. The New York-quoted shares are up by almost 30% over the last month, and that was before the surprising victory against its great rivals Liverpool at…

2 min.

City talk

● Fashion brand Ted Baker reckons its purpose is “creating and celebrating the unexpected in the everyday”, says Alistair Osborne in The Times. The decision to flog itself to America’s Authentic Brands for £211m is certainly unexpected, but there’s not much to celebrate. The 110p per share bid is less than the 137.5p from private-equity firm Sycamore Partners that CEO Rachel Osborne and chair Helena Feltham batted away in March. “The whole thing’s pathetic.” Yes, the firm had been battered by the ousting of founder Ray Kelvin (pictured) as CEO in 2018 over allegations of inappropriate conduct, a £58m “accounting farrago” and a £105m fundraising, but Osborne had shaken things up. Sales are up and net debt is low. There’s no pressing need to sell, regardless of what Feltham calls…

2 min.

Avoid risk in real estate

Markets don’t always get it right, but they know a lot more than any of us individually. So when an entire sector starts to look unduly cheap, it’s crucial to think about what risks are being priced in. Right now diversified office real estate investment trusts (Reits) are a good example. British Land and Land Securities are still well up from where they were in most of 2020, but are down this year. Boston Properties, perhaps the best US office landlord, is almost back to its pandemic lows. Some of the European property stocks are trading lower than they were two years. With yields in the 5%-7% range, many look attractive – especially given that historically real-estate income has done a decent job of keeping up with inflation over the…

1 min.

I wish I knew what a Reit was, but I’m too embarrassed to ask

A real estate investment trust (Reit) is a company that owns and leases out property. The exact rules governing how Reits work vary in different countries, but they must usually pay out most of their property income to shareholders each year (a minimum of 90% is typical). Reits may be allowed to develop properties as well as owning and leasing them, but rent must make up the majority of their income. They may also be subject to other restrictions, such as caps on leverage (the amount they can borrow against their assets). The compensation for these restrictions is that Reits pay no corporation tax on eligible income and capital gains – unlike traditional property companies, which must pay corporation tax. Instead, shareholders will pay income tax at the relevant rate…

1 min.

Guru watch

“We have an inventory of office space that in some cases is truly obsolete,” says Sam Zell, the US real-estate billionaire known as the “grave dancer” for his record of buying distressed properties cheaply and selling them for huge gains. In the aftermath of the pandemic, the US office market is struggling with oversupply: the vacancy rate for offices in Manhattan was 19% in the first quarter, according to Bloomberg. Working from home plays a role in that: 21% of the office visits by workers in the US this year have been from people who are coming in once a week. That’s unlikely to be a permanent shift, reckons Zell: businesses need employees physically present to share ideas. “I don’t think you can motivate by modem… in every one of…

4 min.

Best of the financial columnists

Britain needs a detox Christopher Snowdon The Times There were fears that the 2020 furlough scheme would “prop up firms on the brink of bankruptcy”, and “so it did”, says Christopher Snowdon. Think tank Onward finds that 1%-4% of firms became “zombified” by August. But even pre-Covid-19, nearly 20% of firms were in this position. The prevalence of zombies partly explains why the UK has “suffered from low productivity and weak economic growth for so long”. Thirteen years of ultra-low interest rates may well be the cause. Far from stimulating the economy, they have kept zombies afloat, “disincentivised saving, propped up the stockmarket, fuelled a massive housing bubble” and encouraged risky investment. Take housing. Without cheap credit, there would be fewer buyers. Fewer buyers would mean lower prices. Higher rates…

1 min.

Money talks

“Athletes aren’t all paid the same – some are paid more for what they bring to the game. It wasn’t a matter of thinking I was better… but I knew my worth.” Linda Evangelista (pictured) on campaigning for higher pay for models, quoted in Vogue “[I]f you want to ride in a Bentley, it costs money. If you’re on a budget there’s an intensely farmed Ford Focus available […] and that’s fine by me.” Celebrity chef Tom Kerridge rejecting criticism of his £87 steak, quoted in The Times “The rich have forgotten to be afraid of the poor.” Actor Liam Cunningham on Twitter “Entrepreneurship has got nothing to do with higher education. If you spend years of study and a ton of money getting a law degree, then you won’t…

2 min.

The rise of “quiet quitting”

theconversation.com The UK saw a sharp rise in people quitting their jobs in 2021 and a fifth of workers say they plan to resign in the next year in search of greater job satisfaction and better pay, says Nilufar Ahmed. The trend has been dubbed “the Great Resignation”. However, if you’re unhappy at work but leaving isn’t an option or alternatives are lacking, you could try “quiet quitting” instead. The idea, which has taken off thanks to social media, is to do the bare minimum at work. The idea is resonating with young people. It is also frustrating managers. But “quiet quitting” is not so much about not working as it is about balance. Overwork and unpaid labour has become an “expected part” of many jobs, and all the while…

1 min.

The hydrogen dream is for real

spectrum.ieee.org After “decades of false starts and overly optimistic projections”, this could the year that the hydrogen economy finally takes off, says Glenn Zorpette. The promise is of replacing fossil fuels with a clean fuel produced by renewable energy or nuclear power, substantially reducing carbon emissions. The vision is becoming a reality. “I’ve been working in hydrogen for 20 years, and this is absolutely the most exciting time, the busiest time,” says Keith Wipke of the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The US has just passed sweeping legislation that funnels $370bn into green measures, capping a series of moves to drive down the cost of low-carbon hydrogen and stimulate demand for the fuel. In Europe, a looming gas crisis caused by the war in Ukraine has sent officials scrambling to…

1 min.

Boris mopes at No.10

conservativehome.com Back in 2019, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt were touring the country campaigning for the Tory leadership while Theresa May saw out her days in Downing Street, says William Atkinson. But May used her final two months in office to establish her legacy – she committed the UK to reaching net-zero by 2050, among a blizzard of other worthysounding initiatives. Fast forward to today and Boris is loafing around Downing Street bored or jetting off on holiday. Yet there might be “method to his moping”. When he leaves No.10, he will be able to walk into any job as a newspaper columnist he likes. Within a year, he will be writing for The Spectator, enjoying a regular spot on GB News, and putting the finishing touches to his book…

1 min.

How much is a doctor worth?

lrb.co.uk/blog The British Medical Association has called the recent pay rise awarded to some NHS staff a “brutal cut” in real terms, and junior doctors are being balloted for strike action, says Agnes Arnold-Forster. Doctors’ pay has been a fraught issue ever since the foundation of the NHS. In 1950, GPs threatened to withdraw entirely if their demands were not met. Every decade since has seen campaigns for more pay. These met with pushback – why should they get so much more than nurses or other skilled workers? Doctors themselves were often uneasy about it. Some thought money-grubbing demeaned the profession and sense of vocation. But in more recent times, the NHS doctor has changed. Deference has declined. Doctors feel less restrained about pushing for wage rises and make their…

11 min.

Videogames: a Great British success story

Creatives often struggle to hide their disdain for the finance department. Designers, film directors, musicians, copywriters and artists rely on their intuition; they see creativity as a scarce resource and financial logic as lacking imagination. It’s not unusual for financial success to be deemed subordinate to great entertainment and artistic merit. Some of this attitude pervades the computer games industry. Yet because game play involves completing levels to gain rewards, coders tend to think about strategy more deeply than other creatives. Trends in the videogames sector often prefigure developments in the wider economy. Videogame executives have thought hard about how to benefit from the creation of platforms, network effects, digitisation, and the shift from a physical product sold once to recurring subscription revenue. A commercially successful game requires considerable creativity…

3 min.

Get ahead of the crypto rebound

I’ve tended to avoid making too many comments on the issue of crypto, because frankly I don’t know enough about it. However, I’m not a disbeliever and accept that there are multiple uses for it. Despite my reservations, it’s clear that crypto isn’t going away. We are currently in a crypto winter, but prices haven’t gone to zero – it’s just felt like an especially savage tech sell off. When tech enthusiasm roars back, crypto will be back in business. With that in mind adventurous investors might want to have a look at the listed crypto venture capital (VC) funds trading on the Aquis Exchange. Aquis isn’t the London Stock Exchange, but it’s a viable venue for all sorts of esoteric stocks. I have invested in KR1 (AQSE: KR1), AQRU…

1 min.

Activist watch

US activist ValueAct Capital has taken a 6.7% stake in The New York Times Company – publisher of the eponymous newspaper – and will try to push the company to increase digital sales, says the Financial Times. ValueAct argues that many existing subscribers to The New York Times (NYT) would also be willing to take out higher-priced bundles of online content. The NYT has been relatively successful in adapting to the digital era: it has doubled total subscribers to 9.2 million in the past four years, helped by a string of acquisitions across news, lifestyle, games and sports. The firm’s dual-class structure means that any changes will require support from the Ochs-Sulzberger family, which own 95% of the unlisted class B super-voting shares.…

1 min.

Short positions... risky bets by pensions

■ ”Much has been made of tech investor Baillie Gifford’s spectacularly bad performance as its bets on whizzy growth stocks and start-ups turned sour,” says Jim Armitage in The Sunday Times. Under the guidance of fund manager James Anderson, who retired this year, the “staid old Edinburgh firm” became one of the world’s biggest investors in innovative tech firms. Now its holdings have crashed by £121bn to £231bn in the past year. “What is most astonishing about Baillie Gifford is how so many supposedly conservative UK pension funds pumped employees’ life savings into it.” Nearly 40% of local authority pension funds had invested in Baillie Gifford funds. You can’t blame the company for attracting so much money, but we should wonder why pension trustees were piling into risky high-growth funds.…

2 min.

Don’t switch off Netflix

This year has been a dismal one for technology stocks, with the tech-heavy US Nasdaq Composite index down by 22% so far. Part of the problem is rising interest rates, which have made investors much less willing to tolerate vague promises from tech companies about future profitability; the cost-of-living crisis and looming recessions in many developed countries have unnerved investors too. However, some prominent companies have also been grappling with specific problems that have further undermined their share price. One prime example is the streaming service Netflix. Its shares have fallen by half this year, and are down by around two-thirds from their peak. It’s easy to see why the market has soured on the company. During the pandemic the number of subscriptions soared as there was little to do…

1 min.

Trading techniques... share buybacks

Last week the US introduced a new tax on share buybacks. Firms will now pay 1% of the value of the shares being reacquired. US firms bought back $882bn of their own shares in 2021. The practice is popular with companies: as it reduces the number of shares on the market, it boosts the share price and raises earnings per share, even if the underlying profits aren’t actually rising. Still, critics argue that dividends give shareholders more control over their money; buybacks can also waste money if the shares are overvalued. Nonetheless, a study by the investment firm Two Sigma covering nearly 10,000 buyback announcements in America’s Russell 3000 index between January 1998 and April 2019 found that buybacks are generally good for shareholders. Buying immediately after the announcement and…

1 min.

How my tips have fared

It has been a difficult month for my five open long tips, with four depreciating. Telecoms group Airtel Africa fell from 171p to 138p, while JD Sports declined from 140p to 118p. Hays Recruitment slipped from 125p to 120p and retailer Dunelm fell from 878p to 741p. While Pets at Home passed the 350p at which I suggested that you should go long, it subsequently fell to 332p. The only exception to the trend was industrial and construction-equipment rental company Ashtead, which rose from 3,785p to 4,380p. My long tips are making an overall profit of £823. My short tips have been mixed, with three of the five rising. Remote-medicine firm Teladoc Health fell from $41.89 to $32.71, while DWAC, the holding company for Donald Trump’s social-media venture, also fell,…

2 min.

Avoiding car-hire hassles

Foreign holidays are back, which means travellers are once again grappling with the colossal hassle of hiring a car. One key problem to watch out for is excess car insurance. When you hire a car, it comes with third-party insurance, but the excess is usually astronomical – as high as £1,000. When you collect your car, you will be given the hard sell to buy extra insurance to protect you from having to pay the excess. This costs £189 on average, according to The Times. Avoid it completely by taking out your own excess policy before you go on holiday. iCarhireinsurance, for instance, charges around £35 for a week, or you can take out an annual policy for roughly £45. Then make it clear that you do not want the…

1 min.

Soaring cost of cats and dogs

Lockdowns prompted a boom in pet ownership. But now the cost-of-living crisis means charities are being inundated with pets people can no longer afford to keep. One way to cut costs is to buy pet food in bulk. A 12kg bag of Tesco’s chicken and vegetable adult dog food costs £10 (83p per kg) whereas a 3kg bag sells for £3.75 (£1.25 a kg). Better still, head to a specialist online pet shop or bulk-buy retailer and you can pay even less. Vet bills can be astronomical. Many pet-insurance policies “will not cover very expensive treatments,” says George Nixon in The Sunday Times. So one option is to self-insure, saving money to cover potential treatments. The average pet insurance claim in 2021 was £848, according to the Association of British…

2 min.

Pocket money... thousands miss property-tax deadline

● “One fifth of buy-to-let investors and second homeowners who incurred capital gains tax from property sales in the last year failed to pay their tax bill on time, despite an extension to the reporting deadline,” says Mary McDougall in the Financial Times. In April 2020 a rule change meant taxable gains on residential property had to be reported and paid within 30 days, down from 22 months previously. In October 2021 this deadline was extended to 60 days after complaints that the new rule was too stringent. But a freedom-of-information request by the Financial Times to HMRC found that 26,500 returns missed the filing deadline in the 2021-2022 tax year, up from 25,300 in the previous year. ● The government is expanding a scheme that allows dormant funds in…

2 min.

How to help struggling staff

Can small-business owners and managers do more to help staff with the cost-of-living crisis? That does not have to mean funding budget-busting pay rises. Even if your firm can afford to raise salaries across the board, which seems unlikely, it may not be the best way to direct help towards staff who need it most. Instead, focusing on benefits particularly important to hard-pressed workers might be a better option. That could mean offering more support with the cost of childcare, for example – even signing up for the Childcare Vouchers salary-sacrifice scheme – or providing subsidised meals in the workplace. Transport costs are also worth considering, since these are often a disproportionate burden for those on low incomes. Well-designed company-car schemes (managed for maximum tax efficiency) and interest-free loans for…

1 min.

Petty cash... the scramble to borrow

● Almost half of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) expect to bring forward borrowing plans to reduce the impact of future interest-rate increases. A survey by Close Brothers suggests that 44% are likely to borrow sooner than they had been planning to. The shift follows the Bank of England’s increase in the base rate to 1.75% last month,with further increases expected in the months ahead. Close Brothers also say that 35% of SMEs expect to apply for some form of finance over the next 12 months. ● Businesses with long-running complaints about their banks have six months to register their cases with the Business Banking Resolution Service (BBRS). The BBRS, an independent service established to resolve disputes between small firms and their banks, operates a scheme covering disputes that began…

1 min.

Use the Help to Grow scheme

Could your business benefit from management training or investment in digital technology? If so, the state-backed Help to Grow scheme could be worth considering, especially following its expansion this summer. Help to Grow actually comprises two schemes. First, Help to Grow: Management offers managers and leaders a 50-hour, 12-week training programme covering a range of management and strategic skills. The course is taught by business schools and also offers access to a business mentor, and costs £750. The government says that is just 10% of the actual cost of the training; it picks up the rest of the bill. Once available only to larger businesses, Help to Grow: Management is now open to those with at least five employees. If you have more than ten staff, you can apply for…

2 min.

Top-quality companies to ride Japan’s recovery

Markets will remain susceptible to profound macroeconomic uncertainty, centred on global inflation, interest rates and the risk of recession. We are closely monitoring the impact that imported costs are having on companies and consumers in Japan. But inflation is much lower than in other regions and the country is starting to get back to normal as the pandemic recedes. In this environment, we are focusing on firms benefiting from reopening and oversold, consistent growers. There are also opportunities in the mid- and small-cap sector, where valuations have come down significantly, resulting in bargains for medium-term investors. Japan continues to offer a wealth of under-researched mid- and small-cap growth companies. Active managers like me have the opportunity not only to invest in established global leaders, but also to unearth less well-known…

1 min.

If only you’d invested in…

UK energy provider Drax’s (LSE: DRX) share price soared after it posted first-half results that beat expectations “by a wide margin” last month, says Bloomberg. It reported earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation of £225m. It’s benefiting from rising energy prices, but along with other power generators won’t be subject to the windfall tax imposed on oil and gas firms. It plans to keep two coal units operating beyond September, when they were originally scheduled to close, and will continue to invest in renewables. Drax’s share price has climbed by 80% over the last twelve months.…

1 min.

Be glad you didn’t buy…

UK clothing brand Superdry (LSE: SDRY) has seen its share price fall in a “downward spiral”, says The Motley Fool. The brand has over 700 stores in 61 countries, while competitors with largely online customer bases have far lower operating costs than traditional retailers. Despite Superdry’s efforts to lower expenditure by installing robots at its warehouses, and CEO Julian Dunkerton’s purchase of more than £1m of shares at the end of May, investors have remained jittery and the shares have continued to decline. Superdry’s share price has fallen by 63% over the past year.…

3 min.

The rise of Asia’s richest man

Gautam Adani is “the baron to watch out for if Narendra Modi becomes king”, observed The Times of India just before the 2014 election that swept Modi to power. That was prescient. In the years since, Adani, 60, has shot from being a local industrial heavyweight to become the richest man in Asia – and the fourth-richest man in the world – with a net worth of $125bn, surpassing Warren Buffett. Too big to fail In India, some are wondering whether he is “getting too big to fail”, says Reuters Breakingviews. At some $220bn, the combined value of the Adani group’s seven publicly traded companies has risen tenfold in three years. It operates seven airports, all but one picked up through privatisations since 2019 – building on an “existing quasi-duopoly,…

1 min.

The best trades in history: buying after Black Monday

Blair Hull was born in Los Gatos, California, in 1942. He left school at 16 to work in a canning factory before joining the army to fight in the Vietnam War. After graduating with an MBA from Santa Clara University, he became part of a team of professional blackjack players. Hull used his winnings to buy a seat on the Pacific Stock Exchange, later founding Hull Trading Company in 1985. He would later become involved in politics, unsuccessfully running for the Senate in 2004. What was the trade? On “Black Monday”, 19 October 1987, the US stockmarket plunged and closed down 22% that day. Despite the Federal Reserve pledging to inject liquidity into the market, it initially looked like the following day would see further falls, with investors rushing to…

4 min.

A class act in Edinburgh

After a cancelled Edinburgh Fringe in 2020 and a much-reduced one last year, the end of the pandemic and related restrictions saw artists and audiences return with the number of shows around 80% of the level three years ago. Energised by my colleague Dominic Frisby’s excellent documentary on Adam Smith at the Fringe last year (youtu. be/o6e6TpIrba0), I decided to return to the city, ending up seeing 20 shows. While Frisby’s informative talk about weights and measures at Panmure House has now finished, MoneyWeek’s editor-in-chief, Merryn Somerset Webb, will be appearing from 26-28 August at the same venue. Other standout shows that are still running in other venues include Baxter vs the Bookies, with Andy Linden playing the titular betting tipster in a Damon-Runyan-meets-Dick-Francismasterclass. Afghanistan is Not Funny looks at…

2 min.

Ferrari pulls out the stops

“Ferraris are inherently special – the ‘Prancing Horse’ badge represents more than 80 years of motor-sports history and seven-plus decades of drool-worthy road cars. But some Ferraris stand above others, and the 2022 Daytona SP3 is one of them,” says Caleb Miller in Car and Driver. It is the third model from Ferrari’s Icona series, inspired by classic cars in the brand’s catalogue. The SP3 is “a modern work of automotive art”, beautiful, fast and endowed with “a menacing presence” that reflects its high-brow motoring pedigree. First, there’s the sheer speed of the thing. The SP3’s performance is “absolutely huge”, says Adam Towler in Auto Express, rocketing from 0-62mph in 2.9 seconds, with a top speed of over 211mph. Its sheer potency is “unbelievable”. “Once the engine is working up…

1 min.

Wine of the week: an English summer in a glass

2021 Lyme Bay Winery, Shoreline, England £17.50, lymebaywinery.co.uk I was rather sad when Lyme Bay changed its branding from the wistful, watercolour print-style labels of old to the new, bolder, more strident design. It only took me a year to recover, though, and I am fully on side now that a trio of newly released wines, all wearing their smart new livery in subtly different hues, is of such high quality that all three have made it onto this page. I lead with Shoreline, the most gregarious and gluggable, and the essence of an English summer in just one sip. Made from a blend of bacchus, reichensteiner and seyval blanc, it draws fruit from Devon, Essex and Oxfordshire, and the result is a layered, balanced and pure white with a…

2 min.

Property

Gowers Walk, Shadwell, London E1. A first-floor loft apartment in a Grade II-listed, converted warehouse with a concierge service. The flat retains its original exposed brick walls and large, arched windows and is fitted with a modern bathroom and kitchen. 1 bed, bath, open-plan recep/kitchen. £550,000+ Knight Frank 020-3597 7687. Wesley Place, Deddington, Banbury, Oxfordshire. A Grade II-listed, 1800s former Wesleyan Reform Chapel in the centre of a village. It has a large reception room with a brick fireplace and three bespoke stained-glass windows, and an open-plan kitchen that leads onto a walled garden. 3 beds, 2 baths, recep, pond. £575,000 Hamptons 01869-640157. High Street, Great Gonerby, Grantham. A Grade II-listed, updated stone farmhouse dating from 1769 with a large garden surrounded by mature trees. The house has a heavily…

2 min.

Britain’s growing wine industry

Britain is getting warmer. This year’s record-breaking 40.3°C, recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire, followed years of hotter summers – the ten warmest years in Britain have occurred since 2002. That is, however, good news for Britain’s wine growers. English sparkling wine already competes with the best Champagne has to offer and regularly wins international awards. When it comes to reds, however, the climate is still too cold and clammy. Not for much longer, says a recent paper in the viticulture science journal OENO One. By 2040, more sunshine and less rainfall will make pinot noir, the mainstay of Burgundy reds, viable in the south of England, while areas further north will be opened up to the production of other wines, according to the authors from the Climate Resilience in the UK…

1 min.

Auctions

Going… Jewellery that Elvis Presley gave to his manager, Colonel Tom Parker, will be sold tomorrow with California-based GWS Auctions. The 200-item haul features a diamond “First”, with “TCB” written in gems. It stood for “taking care of business”, a favourite expression of Presley’s, and the ring has a starting bid of $500,000. The red V-2 guitar, which Presley played during his famous “1968 Comeback Special” on TV, is also for sale, with a minimum bid of $750,000, as are Presley’s 1973 Lincoln Continental limousine, with a starting bid of $225,000 and 1976 Harley Davidson motorbike, starting at $200,000. Elvis’s former wife, Priscilla Presley, is supporting the auction, which may reassure those worried about the amount of fake memorabilia on the market. Gone… The 1949 Mercury hot rod from the…

1 min.

Driven to drink

“The rampant inflation that is devastating household budgets is enough to drive one to drink,” says Dominic Walsh in The Times. Investors, looking to hedge their portfolios against the ravages of consumer price rises, are increasingly investing their cash in rare wines and whiskies. While the FTSE 100 fell 3% in the first half of 2022 and gold, a traditional safe haven, rose a meagre 1%, the value of “super-rare blue-chip Burgundy” rose 26% during that time, says Bordeaux Index, a leading wine and spirits merchant. The Bank of England expects inflation to reach 13% later this year. It’s just as well, then, that Christie’s will be holding its “Domaine Ponsot – The 150-Year Jubilee Celebration, Finest & Rarest Wines Direct from the Cellar” sale, at the Four Seasons Hotel…

3 min.

Crossword

Double endplay On this week’s deal from a social game of Rubber Bridge, West found himself endplayed not once but twice, first in Trumps. * Strong case for Four Spades – which on this occasion would steal the pot (only one down).** Five-card support and three quick tricks look good. The barren 5332 shape is an (albeit significant) negative. Declarer won West’s two of Spades lead with the Ace. It looked like a singleton (West would lead top from two). Declarer crossed to the Ace of Trumps, and was disappointed to observe East discard. Cashing the Ace-King of Clubs to eliminate West’s safe exit in that suit, declarer exited with a second Trump. West was endplayed for the first time. Say he exits with a Club. Declarer ruffs in dummy,…

2 min.

The years of famine are here

Nouriel Roubini, the analyst known as “Dr Doom”, is predicting a hard landing for the US economy or uncontrolled inflation, reports Bloomberg. The fed funds rate should be going well above 4%, to 4.5%-5%, if inflation is to be nudged down to 2%, says Roubini. That’s it. Those are the choices. Inflate the bubble, or let it die. Roubini says he thinks hopes for a Fed “pivot” – from tightening to loosening – is “delusional”. In the near term, he is certainly right. Fed governors are not stupid… at least, not in a conventional way. Having assured us that inflation was no problem, they must atone for their mistake. How? By getting control of the situation. That is how they will “regain credibility”. And that means – as Roubini tells…

1 min.

The bottom line

£505,955 The average cost of a private boarding school education were a seven-year-old to start boarding this year and fees to rise by a conservative 2% a year thereafter, according to private bank Weatherbys. A 5% annual rise in fees would result in a £654,919 cost. €2.5bn The cost to the German government of financing a scheme since June, whereby Germans were offered unlimited public transport, excluding fast trains, for €9 a month. One in four took up the offer and there are now calls to make it permanent. £100m The cost of a government scheme to introduce self-driving vehicles onto Britain’s roads from next year. Around £34m will fund safety research to inform new laws, and £20m will go to launching new commercial autonomous-driving services. €4,000 The incentive the…

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