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31 Articles

FEATURED CONTRIBUTORS

Nontobeko Hlela is a research fellow with the Institute for Pan African Thought and Conversation at the University of Johannesburg and columnist with South Africa’s Mail & Guardian. Danny Quah is the Li Ka Shing professor in economics and dean at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Joseph S. Nye Jr. is a distinguished service professor emeritus of Harvard University. He is the author of, most recently, A Life in the American Century. Emile Chabal is a professor of contemporary history at the University of Edinburgh. He works on postwar European political and intellectual history, with a special interest in France. Arancha González is the dean of the Paris School of International Affairs at Sciences Po and a former Spanish foreign minister. Bethany Allen is the head of China…

FEATURED CONTRIBUTORS

FROM THE EDITOR

I HAVE A CONFESSION TO MAKE. I feel a sense of paralysis in these weeks leading up to the U.S. presidential election. Whether it’s the fate of Ukraine, peace in the Middle East, competition with China, or the broader question of America’s role in the world, too much is riding on who will be the next occupant of the White House. A Donald Trump presidency would be very different from a Kamala Harris one, and polls continue to show Americans are bitterly divided on how to choose between them. Key players in global crises, from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, seem as if they are waiting to see who wins before they make their next big move. Perhaps that’s why it’s so difficult to cast…

FROM THE EDITOR

What the United States Can Learn From China

CHINA AFRICA | ASIA& THEPACIFIC | EUROPE | MIDDLE EAST | AMERICAS In any competitive realm, rivals constantly strive to do better. They search for innovations that will improve their position, and they strive to imitate whatever appears to be working for their opponents. We see this phenomenon in sports, in business, and in international politics. Emulation doesn’t mean one has to do exactly what others have done, but ignoring the policies from which others have benefited and refusing to adapt is a good way to keep losing. Today, the need to compete more effectively with China is perhaps the only foreign-policy issue on which nearly all Democrats and Republicans agree. That consensus is shaping the U.S. defense budget, driving the effort to shore up partnerships in Asia, and encouraging an expanding hightech…

What the United States Can Learn From China

How to Win the New Cold War

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, many are asking what the United States’ goal is when it comes to strategic competition with China. The Biden administration has said that it aims to “responsibly manage the competition” with China, but some prominent Republicans have criticized this approach and have called for “victory” as the superior objective. Proponents of victory, however, have not clearly spelled out what winning means. Washington’s goal in its contest with China should indeed be victory, and winning means getting to a point where the Chinese government no longer has the will or the ability to harm vital U.S. interests. In other words, Washington should aim for the capitulation or incapacitation of the China threat. Clearly, aiming to merely “manage the competition” does not make sense. In any other competition,…

How to Win the New Cold War

Why Xi Is Not Fixing China’s Economy

China’s economy is performing dreadfully. The post-pandemic bounce was far smaller and briefer than the Chinese government had anticipated. Despite recording a respectable, if diminished, official growth rate of 5.2 percent in 2023, the reality may have been much slower, with some analysts estimating growth was no more than 1-2 percent. Along with the economic slowdown has come a collapse in confidence in China’s trajectory, both at home and abroad. The quantitative data is stark, showing a sudden drop in confidence by consumers and producers in the spring of 2022 following the Shanghai lockdown. Consumers’ outlook improved briefly when the zero-COVID policies ended in late 2022 but has hovered in record-low territory since. This data may understate the depth and breadth of the uneasiness that Chinese citizens have about the country’s present…

Why Xi Is Not Fixing China’s Economy

South Africa’s Nonalignment Is Here to Stay

South Africa’s 30-year-old democracy is in uncharted waters. The African National Congress (ANC)—the party that led South Africa to liberation from apartheid minority rule—for the first time since 1994, failed to secure an absolute parliamentary majority and there-fore could not form a government on its own. The ANC’s foreign-policy orientation could be an ongoing source of tension with some of its new governing partners, in particular the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Freedom Front Plus. In the lead-up to the May 29 election, foreign policy was a much-debated issue in the Daily Maverick, an influential white-owned online publication, with Ukraine and Gaza taking center stage. There was often a strongly expressed view that Pretoria should directly align with Western capitals and that its nonaligned policy in fact meant affiliation with Russia,…

South Africa’s Nonalignment Is Here to Stay

Ruto Broke the Social Contract

June was one of the deadliest months in Kenya’s recent history. An estimated 39 people were slain, according to the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights—some in front of the Kenyan Parliament and others in Nairobi’s slums. They were killed by the country’s security forces for exercising their human rights to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly. It was the culmination of weeks of violence, during which young protesters opposing new taxes and the government’s excesses were abducted, arrested, beaten, shot, and tear-gassed. Kenyan President William Ruto threatened to intensify the repression. He denounced the protests as “treasonous,” smeared its participants as “criminals,” and ominously directed the security forces to “deploy all measures.” Police moved from using tear gas to live ammunition. In a later speech, bowing to public pressure, he appeared to…

Ruto Broke the Social Contract

Filipinos Need Butter, Not Just Guns

Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., elected president of the Philippines in 2022 and the son of its infamous 10th president, was expected to continue his family’s close relationship with Beijing in office. But as he became aware of the extent of China’s coercive activities in the South China Sea and after his last-ditch effort to convince the country to back off failed, he surprised the world. In February 2023, Marcos accepted the overtures of the United States by committing to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, bringing the Philippines into America’s orbit until at least 2028. As Marcos said during a joint statement with President Joe Biden in May 2023, “It is only natural … for the Philippines to look to its sole treaty partner in the world to strengthen and to redefine…

Filipinos Need Butter, Not Just Guns

Asia Has Military Aims in Europe

What has often been circum-scribed as “the rise of the rest”—the relative ascendancy of the non-Western powers—has been felt particularly acutely in Asia. When the Portuguese navigator Vasco da Gama reached India’s Kerala coast in 1498, it marked the start of 500 years of European (and later U.S.) dominance over Asia—colonial, imperial, and geopolitical. Decolonization from the mid-20th century onward did not much alter Western dominance, nor did it end Asia’s deference to Europe. Until now, that is. The rapid growth of Asian economies and the redistribution of power in favor of the East herald a new era in the relationship between Europe and Asia. What began as a shift in economic power is now extending to the geopolitical, military, and technological realms. Europe has already become a military theater for Asian…

Asia Has Military Aims in Europe

Ukraine and Its ‘Wet Gap Crossing’ to NATO

The Biden administration sometimes refers to the need to build a “bridge” to NATO membership for Ukraine. It’s an apt metaphor—just not in the way its proponents might think. One might think of a bridge as a mere symbol of hope. But, invoked in a military context, a bridge is best understood in its role as wartime infrastructure. And that metaphor works precisely because building a bridge in wartime is an incredibly difficult and complex operation—one that military planners call a “wet gap crossing.” Conducting a contested wet gap crossing is perilous—see Ukraine’s evisceration of a Russian battalion attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in May 2022—but the possible strategic rewards are high. In 1944, George S. Patton’s Third Army crossed the Moselle River at Nancy, turning the German defensive…

Ukraine and Its ‘Wet Gap Crossing’ to NATO

The New Meaning of France’s Anti-Fascism

After a period of relative quiescence, everyone has started talking about fascism again. This is, in part, due to the threat of a second term for Donald Trump, which has reactivated a highly polemical fascism debate in the United States. But there are plenty of other actual or quasi-fascists elsewhere. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is the leader of a genuine neofascist party. In Latin America, Argentina’s Javier Milei has picked up where Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro left off. And in India, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party was reelected in June, albeit with a much-reduced majority. By contrast, much less has been said about anti-fascism. Most commentators and journalists—and even many academics—seem to have accepted that anti-fascism belongs to the 20th century. Which is a little strange. If fascism is real, why…

The New Meaning of France’s Anti-Fascism

Sideline Israel From International Sports

FIFA, global soccer’s governing body, is facing growing calls to ban Israel’s teams from international competitions. The Palestinian Football Association has formally demanded action in response to the dire humanitarian situation created by Israel’s assault on Gaza, the ongoing disruption of Palestinian soccer imposed by Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory, and the fact that teams from Israel’s illegal West Bank settlements play in its domestic leagues in violation of FIFA rules. The international body has long evaded efforts within its councils to sanction Israel, but the pressure of disruptive protest action in and around the world’s soccer stadiums could force a change. FIFA President Gianni Infantino had artfully played for time by insisting his organization needed legal advice, despite the federation’s precedent of barring Russia within weeks of its invasion of…

Sideline Israel From International Sports

The West Shouldn’t Celebrate Russia’s Syria Drawdown

When Russia began its military intervention in Syria in 2015, shifting the civil war’s momentum in favor of the Assad regime, many in the West grew concerned about the Kremlin’s intentions. They feared that Russia’s return to the Middle East was not only to support the authoritarian regime in Syria but also to form an alliance with other anti-Western forces in the region, including Iran. However, almost a decade later, with wars raging in both Europe and the Middle East, Tehran and Moscow’s partnership in the war-torn country seems to be undergoing significant changes, with the previous symmetry in favor of Russia now leaning toward Iran. Following the launch of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia—strapped for resources—withdrew and redeployed a number of its troops, alongside some of its weaponry…

The West Shouldn’t Celebrate Russia’s Syria Drawdown

America Is Stuck in a Century-Old Immigration Debate

A head of the U.S. presidential election in November, many voters have listed immigration among their top concerns. Last year, authorities registered a record nearly 2.5 million encounters with migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border. Republicans and their nominee, former President Donald Trump, argue that the United States is experiencing an immigration crisis that is the result of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’s poor management of the issue. If reelected, Trump has promised to crack down on immigration and launch a mass deportation campaign resembling then-President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s infamous Operation Wetback in 1954. Meanwhile, Biden has significantly expanded restrictions on asylum and promoted bipartisan legislation that would grant him greater authority to oversee migration at the border. He has criticized Republicans for their lack of support for the…

America Is Stuck in a Century-Old Immigration Debate

DEAR MADAM OR MR. PRESIDENT

WORDS OF ADVICE FROM NINE THINKERS. THE TRADITION STARTED with a cartoon elephant and some turkeys. On Jan. 20, 1989, before leaving the Oval Office for the last time, Ronald Reagan put pen to paper with some advice for his vice president and successor, George H.W. Bush. “You’ll have moments when you want to use this particular stationery,” Reagan wrote on a notepad illustrated by children’s book author Sandra Boynton. The caption? “Don’t let the turkeys get you down.” As with so many elements of political life in the United States, Reagan’s influence is still felt, as U.S. presidents continue to leave their successors handwritten missives. Most recently, Joe Biden described Donald Trump’s as “shockingly gracious.” Whether Biden returns the favor next January or will be writing to his own deputy Kamala…

DEAR MADAM OR MR. PRESIDENT

Embrace the Frustrations of Compromise

Dear Americans, You are the only ones who can choose between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump this November, but your decision will ripple across the world. It will decide war or peace, tyranny or democracy, poverty or prosperity far beyond your borders. For a century, the United States has been at the center of global events. It has championed humanitarian action, economic development, human rights, and democracy. The U.S. victory against fascism in 1945 defined the world. But your country has also broken international law and pursued disastrous wars and coups. Whether defensible or not, its actions have been driven by a strong political center, supported by a bipartisan understanding of America’s role in the world. Now, that center has been shaken—perhaps even broken—by hyperpartisan politics. Before the January 2021 insurrection at the…

Embrace the Frustrations of Compromise

Democracies Need Protecting

Dear Americans, You will soon go to the polls to elect your next president. And once again, the rest of the world will be holding its breath. I will be following the vote count with a mix of admiration, expectation, and concern: admiration for your democracy and its ability to reinvent itself even when faced with serious challenges; expectation because the United States is a model that we all want to follow; concern about your temptation to isolationism. In a nutshell, your choice matters to you and your future but also to millions of people around the world, including in Europe. I hope, therefore, you will not mind me humbly providing unsolicited advice. Your biggest asset is trust: the faith you have in yourselves and your ability to overcome and the confidence…

Democracies Need Protecting

First, Take Care of Your People

Dear Madam or Mr. President, Congratulations on leading the United States in a political refresh. From here in Southeast Asia, we have for decades admired and valued your country’s many gifts to the world. The United States gained our admiration by sharing with us your American Dream, showing how you succeeded, and leading by example. But there is no denying that things have changed. Even the out-comes for which you early on fought—multilateralism, or a level playing field; a jointly stronger world economy—now seem to work against you. Toward the end of the 20th century, you advanced three grand ideas: political convergence, economic efficiency, and comparative advantage. These promised a more prosperous and egalitarian global society. But they have not delivered the outcomes for which you had wished. That must be dispiriting…

First, Take Care of Your People

Play by the Rules

Dear Madam or Mr. President, The United States has in recent years made a major U-turn. After decades of telling other countries that they should not undertake industrial policies, our country under President Joe Biden enacted two massive bills: the Chips and Science Act, to promote U.S. production of a crucial component of any 21stcentury economy; and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which, in spite of its name, was really about the country beginning its green transition and capturing, for itself, more green jobs. The scale of the acts is enormous—for Chips and Science, some quarter of a trillion dollars, and the IRA, originally estimated at one-third of a trillion dollars, is now thought to be in the order of $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion. The acts are having one desired effect:…

Play by the Rules

Nurture Your Partnerships

Dear Madam or Mr. President, As you take up the extraordinary challenges before you, I hope you will nurture the partnerships that have sustained the United States through the years. When I became the European Union’s foreign-policy chief, I learned two lessons very quickly: first, that no matter how powerful any nation is, no significant issue can be solved alone. Climate change, pandemics, organized crime, and cyberattacks all require responses beyond borders. Opportunities for our citizens to travel, study, trade, and do business need deals with other countries that last decades or more. Working together with other like-minded nations is vital if we are to keep people secure, grow our economies, and tackle new challenges. The second lesson was the strength of the trans-Atlantic relationship. Every day, and all day, the flow…

Nurture Your Partnerships

Clean Energy Is Security

Dear Madam or Mr. President, Congratulations on your election as president of the United States. You take office at a moment of enormous consequence for a world directly impacted by the twin challenges of energy security and climate change. Democrats and Republicans disagree on many aspects of energy and climate policy. Yet your administration has the chance to chart a policy path forward that unites both parties around core areas of agreement to advance the U.S. national interest. First, all should agree that climate change is real and worsening. The escalating threat of climate change is increasingly evident to anyone walking the streets of Phoenix in the summer, buying flood insurance in southern Florida, farming rice in Vietnam, or laboring outdoors in Pakistan. This year will almost certainly surpass 2023 as the warmest…

Clean Energy Is Security

Multilateralism Still Matters

Dear Madam or Mr. President, The future of multilateralism might seem too diffuse as to hang on the outcome of one national election—yours—but for diplomats at the United Nations in New York and elsewhere, it does. In part, this is a well-worn cycle, of denigrating U.S. leadership as overreach when it is seen as on the up and being equally quick to condemn its departure as removing the essential anchor when it seems to be abdicating the world stage. As you know, the United States has in truth been the mainstay of the modern multilateral system since its launch in 1945. Despite occasional threats of divorce—and on occasion actual disengagement from individual U.N. entities and nonpayment of dues—it has not deserted the system as it did the earlier League of Nations. Much…

Multilateralism Still Matters

Strategic Autonomy Is Nothing to Fear

Dear Madam or Mr. President, Seventy-seven years ago, on India’s gaining independence, President Harry S. Truman said that in the United States, India would find a constant friend. It is such constancy that defines the expanding partnership between our two democracies. In the last two decades particularly, we have together achieved spectacular improvements in bilateral relations. This letter, however, focuses on an area perhaps insufficiently grasped as the United States contemplates the India of today—that is, its self-definition as a civilizational state and its vision of strategic autonomy and multipolarity in global affairs. The world of 2024 is vastly different from that of 1947, when India gained independence. The rules-based international order to which both our countries have pledged allegiance is in danger of falling apart, and in this season of change, Western…

Strategic Autonomy Is Nothing to Fear

Invest in Soft Power

Dear Madam or Mr. President, As president, you will need to invest in U.S. soft power, the ability to get what we want through attraction rather than coercion or payment. When I first published an article on soft power in FOREIGN POLICY in 1990, the concept was new, but the behavior is as old as human history. While the hard power of coercion usually prevails in the short run, soft power is essential for the long-term success of foreign policy. As Talleyrand, Napolean’s foreign minister, is alleged to have said, “You can do everything with bayonets, except sit on them.” A country’s soft power comes primarily from three sources: its culture; its political values, such as democracy and human rights; and its policies when they are seen as legitimate, because they are…

Invest in Soft Power

THE STAKES OF 2024

What exactly are the stakes of the 2024 U.S. presidential election? President Joe Biden and his anointed successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, have sought to lay them out in stark, simple terms. The election, Harris said at her rollout event as a presidential candidate on July 23, is “about two different visions for our nation: one where we are focused on the future, the other focused on the past.” Biden, in a speech from the Oval Office a day later, sounded the same theme: “America is going to have to choose between moving forward or backward.” These are, on the surface, fairly banal words, seemingly anodyne sentiments typical of presidential campaign rhetoric. Yet, in the present context, they are terrifyingly true. They are freighted with historic implications that could make this the…

THE STAKES OF 2024

THE TOP IR SCHOOLS OF 2024, RANKED

The Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) Project at William & Mary’s Global Research Institute has long partnered with Foreign Policy to create a reputational ranking of academic programs in international relations. Over the past two decades, our process has remained simple and consistent: We ask IR professionals what they think are the five best places to study for an undergraduate, a terminal master’s, and a doctoral degree. In our most recent survey on the topic, conducted from October 2022 to January 2023, we received responses from 979 IR scholars across the United States, 294 staff affiliated with U.S. think tanks, and 291 policymakers who worked in the U.S. government during the George W. Bush, Obama, and Trump administrations. For the first time, we also asked respondents which Ph.D. programs are…

THE TOP IR SCHOOLS OF 2024, RANKED

Modi’s Long Game

India has long been described as “the world’s largest democracy,” although in recent years it has experienced significant backsliding: Freedom House, the V-Dem Institute, and the Economist Intelligence Unit have all downgraded India in their rankings, most acutely since 2019, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his second term. Successive Indian governments have weakened human rights, but the process has accelerated under Modi, who has held office since 2014 and limped back in June after an election that saw him lose his governing majority. Although Modi may be wounded, he remains vastly popular personally. No other prime minister since India’s first, Jawaharlal Nehru, has won three consecutive terms. And Modi’s achievements go beyond electoral success. In the past decade, he has singularly sought to modify the Nehruvian idea of India—from a…

Modi’s Long Game

Climate denial may be on the decline, but a phenomenon at least as injurious to the cause of climate protection has blossomed beside it: doomism, or the belief that there’s no way to halt the Earth’s ascendant temperatures. Burgeoning ranks of doomers throw up their hands, crying that it’s too late, too hard, too costly to save humanity from near-future extinction. There are numerous strands of doomism. The followers of ecologist Guy McPherson, for example, gravitate to wild conspiracy theories that claim humanity won’t last another decade. Many young people, understandably overwhelmed by negative climate headlines and TikTok videos, are convinced that all engagement is for naught. Even the Guardian, which boasts superlative climate coverage, sometimes publishes alarmist articles and headlines that exaggerate grim climate projections. This gloom-and-doomism robs people of the…

Revisiting Chinese Empire

Empire is a dirty word in the postcolonial era. No country today wants to be thought of that way, least of all China, which until 1911 was known as the “great Qing empire.” Instead, the Chinese Communist Party portrays China as a diverse but unified society, with an essential character, a single cohesive history—and a set of rightful borders that, like moral values, are eternal. Discussion of Chinese empire has little place in this vision of China. Western imperialism is the yoke that Mao Zedong cast off and that Xi Jinping still vigilantly combats; there is no Eastern imperialism. A new book by veteran New York Times correspondent Edward Wong throttles this view. In At the Edge of Empire, Wong asserts that Xi’s “China dream” is the dream of a rejuvenated…

Revisiting Chinese Empire

Politics Is TikTok’s Newest Dance Move

In 1924, the U.S. presidential race between Calvin Coolidge, John W. Davis, and Robert La Follette was the first to navigate around a new, democratizing development: radio. Previously, if you wanted to hear the candidates speak, you had to be there in person, and certainly that couldn’t allow for everyone. While kicking the tires of the novel technology, someone in the ultimately victorious Coolidge campaign recognized what was resonating and stuck a succinct bit of wisdom in a memo for posterity: “Speeches must be short.” The political soundbite was born. Cut to 100 years later, and the message is the same but the medium different—it’s time for adults to accept that TikTok is more than a video-sharing app that teaches your niece acrobatic dance moves. Snappy and effective political videos couched…

Politics Is TikTok’s Newest Dance Move

What in the World?

The following is adapted from past editions of FP’s weekly online news quiz. Test yourself every week at ForeignPolicy.com. 1. What did Kenyans protest at the country’s Parliament in late June? a. The Kenyan-led police mission in Haiti b. A new tax bill c. Financial aid to Israel d. A security pact with Russia 2. Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in June that which group of people was no longer exempt from the military draft? a. Women in the Druze community b. Arab Israelis c. People with certain disabilities d. Ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students 3. Former U.S. President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 but suffered an injury to which body part? a. Ear b. Hand c. Shoulder d. Leg 4. How many seats in the House of Commons did the Labour Party win in the United Kingdom’s July 4 general election? a. 252 b. 360 c.…

What in the World?

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