FOODS FOR THOUGHT

IT IS that time of the week when the big food shop needs doing and the cupboards are bare. But as you walk through your local supermarket, you realise beef won't be an option for this week's Sunday roast again as the shelves look almost empty.
On to the fruit and veg aisle and there's no avocados in sight while your hopes of supporting British farmers by buying local carrots and parsnips are immediately scuppered.
Even coffee and chocolate seem in short supply and worst of all, this isn't a one-off situation unique to your local store or the day you've chosen to do your shopping - it's a window into the supermarket shops of the not-too-distant future, one food experts predict will look remarkably different within a few short years because of climate change and rising costs.
Worryingly, some of these changes are already apparent. Take one of our sweetest treats, chocolate. Right now there is a global shortage of cocoa after west African countries, responsible for 70% of cacao production, suffered poor harvests due to heat, heavy rainfall and disease. The crisis is expected to get worse as our planet continues to warm.
And it's affecting consumers doing their weekly shopping now with the average price of Easter chocolate surging more than 10% over the last five years, according to analysis released this week. A small milk chocolate Lindt Gold Bunny weighing 100g, as one example, has soared from £2.99 to £4.25. Based on current trends, consumers could be paying £6.04 for it by the end of the decade.
Élsewhere, shoppers have been warned to expect shortfalls of broccoli, cauliflower and other brassica vegetables in the coming weeks because of an unusually mild autumn and winter. This will coincide with the traditional "hungry gap" between April and June when winter crops have ended but summer crops aren't ready for harvesting.
Hannah Croft, Agronomist at Riverford, the organic vegetable delivery box, has warned customers of "tight periods for broccoli supply later this spring".
Of course, the vulnerability of our shopping baskets was evident in the spring of 2023 when cool weather in the Mediterranean resulted in a shortage of salad. Cucumbers, tomatoes and lettuce were all affected.
AND Dr Morgaine Gaye, a food futurologist and author of Fashion to Food, warns that coffee is already on the "endangered" list.
image [https://cdn.magzter.com/1583504377/1742951796/articles/1j6M6awDB1742968727864/6633466437.jpg]
Gaye, who works with the Ministry of Defence to prepare for future food scenarios, told the Express that rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns were already threatening coffee-growing regions known as the "bean belt".
"The region is dominated by Brazil and [other parts of] South America and African nations, areas which [are vulnerable to] corruption and unstable governments," she says. "Many farmers are already moving to higher elevations or switching crops, which means coffee will no longer be grown in some areas."
Other alternatives are in the works from chicory root coffee and lab-grown coffee compounds to coffee made from roasted dates. But for those who like the strong stuff it is certainly bad news.
Meanwhile, British fisher man and oyster farmer Tony Talbot has sounded the alarm on the UK's dwindling fish population.
"Both in value and quantity, I've had to source fish elsewhere and buy cod in London fish markets," says the 58-year-old who made his first net aged 14. "It's very, very different this year."
Involved in the sea for his whole life Tony runs his own fishing business, Tony's Fresh Fish, based at Clear Point Bay, Clacton.
Since 2001, he has hauled his catches from the Thames Estuary but now believes his livelihood is under threat, with once abundant species flowing through the waters in huge decline.
He typically fishes Dover sole, sea bass, lobsters, grey mullet, thornback rays, turbot and brill but believes the increasingly wetter weather is driving higher concentrations of nitrogen into rivers, fuelling higher quantities of algae, with disastrous consequences. "The whole Thames Estuary is full of what's called May water," Tony says.
Explaining the effect of the algae on fishing, he adds: "It sticks to the meshes of the nets, meaning the fish can see the algae and then don't go in the nets. It's the same for lobster pots."
Traditionally, the algae stays in the water for around four weeks, but Tony says this year it has lingered for double the amount of time after Britain recently experienced its wettest winter in 130 years.
He has 33 lobster pots but expects to only catch nine or 10 lobsters per day and the spring season is short as arriving jellyfish, seawood and clearer waters limit catches.
"We have to make hay in the spring and this year, spring has been wiped out," he says.
Back on land, the long-term picture is mixed. Reflecting on the current chocolate shortage, Dr Gaye says this is an ongoing problem as "cacao trees are sensitive to climate changes and diseases".
But she believes the replacements that scientists are producing may one day be just as good.
"We're seeing a huge development of labgrown cacao butter and precision fermentation to produce chocolate," adds Dr Gaye. "Alternative chocolate products using carob or other beans are also under development with promising results.
"Even so, cacao beans - or chocolate as we know it is a commodity which will increase in value and scarcity as the years pass."
As our climate changes, avocados and almonds are also both in peril.
Jennie Norton, a nutritionist at Vegan Wins, explains: "Both require a lot of water to grow, and with droughts becoming more common, their production may not stay sustainable on a large scale."
Meanwhile, nutritionist Emilie Clement says a monoculture farming system, where a single crop is grown in a given area, could also "wipe out" entire varieties of crops.
"If only a handful of banana or wheat varieties exist, a single blight could ...