Parties in power nationally often do badly in local elections but Sir Keir Starmer is fortunate as many city unitary regimes where Labour are big do not vote on May 1 so he cannot lose heavily.
Instead attention will focus on Reform and the Conservatives, the LGIU said. Key sites include Lincolnshire where ex-Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns, who defected to Reform, may win the mayoral race.
Reform gains may also stop Labour taking control of Durham's county council. The LGIU said Mr Farage's party is in second place in many local seats there.
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Kent may be a problem for the Tories, the think-tank said, adding: "Conservatives are going in with a lot to lose. Recent council losses in many districts in the area suggest that both the Liberal Democrats and Reform could pick up seats here."
Polls show Reform may take control of Doncaster...